Solving a gamebook : Lone Wolf book 04, The Chasm of Doom

This post is part of the "Gamebook solver" serie:

What should you know?

First of all, having the +4 Strength Potion from the previous book is essential to maximizing the probability of winning the next book. So, if you start with it, you should not use it. In the computed solutions, there is only one case that would require using it, and it is when the following conditions are met:

  • missing disciplines are Mind Over Matter and Camouflage;
  • silver helm, but no silver sword
  • and some extra condition I could not decipher :)

The Flask of Holy Water is really important in order to avoid the hardest fight in the book. The first time you can grab it is at section 78, but there is a 50% chance you can end up there, because of the random fork earlier in section 319. This means that if you do not own it when reaching section 118, you should ascend the stairs, in order to secure it later in section 302. This however deprives you from the chance to fight the Elix, which will be useful in book 05.

Talking about section 302, there are four good items to get:

  • 2 potions au Laumspur
  • a strength potion
  • the flask of holy water

You should drop extra meals in order to get these items, except when you have the Sommerwerd. In that case, you can ignore the strength potion.

Initial conditions

The initial conditions are:

  • start with:
    • a Sword, or the Sommerswerd
    • the Silver Helmet, or not
    • the +4 Strength Potion, or not
    • one potion of Laumspur
    • a Shield
    • 4 meals
    • 15 gold (although having more or less gold has no influence on the win rate)
  • max endurance: 20
  • combat skill: 10
  • all disciplines, except the listed discipline (weapon specialization is Sword)

Note that I preselected the missing disciplines to ignore those that are really necessary.

Mega solution!

What does all of this mean?

  • Missing Discs: the disciplines that have not been selected in this run; under it, the number of states that have been computed for this solution;
  • Win rate: the probability of winning the fifth book when starting from this state;
  • Raw rate: the probability of winning this book. Note that there might be a better route if you are playing this book standalone, as this is the route that includes what's happening till book 05;
  • SS: start with the Sommerswerd;
  • SH: start with the Silver Helmet;
  • +4: start with the +4 Strength Potion;
  • Fought Elix: probability of fighting an Elix in this route;
  • Laumspur collect: probability of collecting Laumspur in chapters 12, 268 and 302;
  • End with +4 Strength Potion: probability of holding the +4 Strength potion at the end of the run.
Missing disc
#states
Win rate
Raw rate
SS
SH
+4
Fought Elix
Laumspur collect
Final gold
End with +2 Strength Potion
End with +4 Strength Potion
Camouflage / SixthSense
20.23M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / SixthSense
24.50M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / Hunting
19.39M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
25.30M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
25.43M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Hunting / MindOverMatter
24.50M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / MindShield
25.16M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / MindShield
20.13M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / MindShield
24.36M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
25.48M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / Tracking
35.69M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / Tracking
24.93M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Tracking / MindOverMatter
25.48M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Tracking / MindShield
25.34M states
79.669%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / SixthSense
20.35M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / SixthSense
24.66M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / Hunting
19.51M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
25.47M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
25.59M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Hunting / MindOverMatter
24.66M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / MindShield
25.20M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / MindShield
20.16M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / MindShield
24.39M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
25.65M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Camouflage / Tracking
35.87M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00-100.000%
Hunting / Tracking
25.09M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Tracking / MindOverMatter
25.65M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
Tracking / MindShield
25.38M states
77.041%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
MindShield / MindOverMatter
25.16M states
75.466%90.000%yesyesyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
27.51M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%100.000%
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
27.31M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%100.000%
SixthSense / MindShield
26.85M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%100.000%
Hunting / Tracking
27.16M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.3528.159%100.000%
Hunting / SixthSense
26.59M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%100.000%
Hunting / MindOverMatter
26.59M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%100.000%
Hunting / MindShield
26.14M states
73.796%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%100.000%
Tracking / MindOverMatter
27.49M states
73.786%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%100.000%
Tracking / MindShield
27.03M states
73.786%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%100.000%
Camouflage / SixthSense
24.02M states
73.600%89.255%noyesyes49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%100.000%
Camouflage / MindShield
23.65M states
73.600%89.255%noyesyes49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%100.000%
Camouflage / Tracking
40.85M states
73.600%89.255%noyesyes49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%100.000%
Camouflage / Hunting
23.25M states
73.600%89.255%noyesyes49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.1112.100%100.000%
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
27.48M states
73.599%89.254%noyesyes49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.1312.100%99.999%
Camouflage / SixthSense
10.08M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / SixthSense
12.21M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / Hunting
9.66M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
12.62M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
12.68M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Hunting / MindOverMatter
12.21M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
SixthSense / MindShield
12.55M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / MindShield
10.03M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / MindShield
12.15M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
SixthSense / Tracking
12.70M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / Tracking
17.81M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / Tracking
12.43M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Tracking / MindOverMatter
12.71M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Tracking / MindShield
12.64M states
71.090%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
MindShield / MindOverMatter
26.85M states
67.768%89.492%noyesyes49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%100.000%
MindShield / MindOverMatter
25.20M states
67.219%90.000%yesnoyes50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50-100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
13.71M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%-
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
13.61M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%-
SixthSense / MindShield
13.38M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%-
Hunting / Tracking
13.53M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.3528.159%-
Hunting / SixthSense
13.25M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%-
Hunting / MindOverMatter
13.25M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%-
Hunting / MindShield
13.03M states
59.315%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.9628.159%-
Tracking / MindOverMatter
13.70M states
59.274%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%-
Tracking / MindShield
13.47M states
59.274%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2028.159%-
Camouflage / SixthSense
11.96M states
59.149%89.255%noyesno49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%-
Camouflage / MindShield
11.78M states
59.149%89.255%noyesno49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%-
Camouflage / Tracking
20.38M states
59.149%89.255%noyesno49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.2412.100%-
Camouflage / Hunting
11.58M states
59.149%89.255%noyesno49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%4.1112.100%-
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
13.70M states
59.149%89.254%noyesno49.726%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.1312.100%-
MindShield / MindOverMatter
12.55M states
58.898%90.000%yesyesno50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
MindShield / MindOverMatter
13.38M states
52.758%89.492%noyesno49.783%89.670% / 99.944% / 50.000%5.2628.159%-
Camouflage / SixthSense
10.15M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / SixthSense
12.30M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / Hunting
9.73M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
12.71M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
12.77M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Hunting / MindOverMatter
12.30M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
SixthSense / MindShield
12.57M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / MindShield
10.05M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / MindShield
12.17M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
SixthSense / Tracking
12.80M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Camouflage / Tracking
17.91M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%4.00--
Hunting / Tracking
12.52M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Tracking / MindOverMatter
12.80M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Tracking / MindShield
12.66M states
51.666%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
Hunting / SixthSense
26.81M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3756.616%100.000%
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
27.53M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
Hunting / MindOverMatter
26.81M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3756.616%100.000%
SixthSense / MindShield
27.08M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
Hunting / MindShield
26.36M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3756.616%100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
27.73M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
Hunting / Tracking
27.39M states
49.128%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3756.616%100.000%
Tracking / MindOverMatter
27.71M states
49.022%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
Tracking / MindShield
27.26M states
49.022%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
Camouflage / SixthSense
24.24M states
48.690%88.227%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3324.482%100.000%
Camouflage / Hunting
23.46M states
48.690%88.227%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.0024.482%100.000%
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
27.71M states
48.648%88.227%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3324.482%100.000%
Camouflage / MindShield
23.87M states
48.648%88.227%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3324.482%100.000%
Camouflage / Tracking
41.10M states
48.648%88.227%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.3324.482%100.000%
MindShield / MindOverMatter
12.57M states
43.359%90.000%yesnono50.000%90.000% / 100.000% / 50.000%5.50--
MindShield / MindOverMatter
27.08M states
43.045%89.020%nonoyes-89.615% / 100.000% / 100.000%4.1656.616%100.000%
SixthSense / Tracking
13.80M states
27.678%82.577%nonono46.099%83.753% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-
SixthSense / MindOverMatter
13.71M states
27.678%82.577%nonono46.099%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-
SixthSense / MindShield
13.48M states
27.678%82.577%nonono46.099%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-
Hunting / Tracking
13.63M states
27.678%82.577%nonono46.099%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.6030.517%-
Hunting / SixthSense
13.35M states
27.678%82.576%nonono46.098%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.6030.517%-
Hunting / MindOverMatter
13.35M states
27.678%82.576%nonono46.098%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.6030.517%-
Hunting / MindShield
13.13M states
27.678%82.576%nonono46.098%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.6030.517%-
Tracking / MindOverMatter
13.80M states
27.559%82.577%nonono46.099%83.753% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-
Tracking / MindShield
13.57M states
27.559%82.577%nonono46.099%83.753% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-
Camouflage / SixthSense
12.06M states
27.091%81.044%nonono45.569%83.760% / 98.213% / 50.000%4.2113.326%-
Camouflage / Hunting
11.67M states
27.090%81.042%nonono45.567%83.760% / 98.213% / 50.000%4.0213.326%-
Camouflage / MindShield
11.87M states
27.016%81.044%nonono45.569%83.760% / 98.213% / 50.000%4.2113.326%-
Camouflage / Tracking
20.49M states
27.016%81.044%nonono45.569%83.760% / 98.213% / 50.000%4.2113.326%-
Camouflage / MindOverMatter
13.79M states
26.978%80.955%nonono45.508%83.727% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4913.341%-
MindShield / MindOverMatter
13.48M states
25.578%82.577%nonono46.099%83.752% / 98.213% / 50.000%5.4830.517%-