Solving a gamebook : Lone Wolf book 05, Shadow on the Sand mega solution (edit)

2022-02-02

This post is part of the "Gamebook solver" serie:

Yay! I finally computed stats for the last book, depending on what you did in previous books. This walk-through still lacks the armor items, which have not yet been modeled, but it should be quite good in other aspects.

First of all, the following items that can be taken from other books are useless in this book:

the Fire Sphere
the Prism
the Blue Stone Triangle
the Onyx Medallion

And the following special items are to be avoided:

the Brass Whistle, the towel, as they are useless
the Black Cube, as it is a trap

However, the following previous items or experiences are indeed useful:

having fought an Elix in book 04
having the Sommerswerd, or the Silver Helm
having the potent (+4) strength potion

Random notes:

~~If you visit the shop at chapter 27, buy the 6Hp potion, it is worth it!~~ With the fixed shopping code, it is actually the 2Hp potion that is worth it! This is probably an artifact from the fact that I added an heuristic that says you can only use a potion if it won't be wasted (you have to have lost at least 6Hp before using the +6Hp potion for example).
Starting conditions are sensitive to starting gold, but only if you start with less than 4 gold, so that you can buy the potion at chapter 27. As the minimum starting gold is 10, it doesn't matter.
You don't have to buy the Black Sash!
Almost all routes include getting and curing Limbdeath.

Edit

2022-02-04 -- added the number of states, and potent strength potion option
2022-02-20 -- added body armor statistics
2022-02-21 -- fix strength potion usage (again)
2022-03-01 -- many bug fixes, checked money sensitivity

Mega solution!

This are all the routes you should take, depending on the following starting conditions:

Missing disc: if you have done all the previous books, you should have 9 disciplines, which means you lack one. This column shows the discipline that is missing. It means that the character has all the other remaining disciplines available! Note that clicking on that column will let you show a visualisation of the related solution!.
SS: did you start with the Sommerswerd or with a Sword?
SH: did you start with the Silver Helm?
+4: did you start with the Potent Strength Potion?
BA: did you start with the +4HP body armor?
EX: have you fought an Elix previously?

The the following data is available:

Win rate: what is the probability of winning this book?
Imprisoned: probability of going through a route that leads to prison.
Offer Oede: probability of offering Oede to the poor waxeler (nice!).
Limbdeath: does the route leads to Limbdeath?
Prism and Sash: probability of following a path that leads to the acquisition of the Sash or the Prism.
c27 +2HP: probability of buying the +2Hp potion at section 27.
Dhorgaan: final fight against Dhorgaan (instead of the Crypt Spawn and Dark Lord).
Keep SS: probability of finishing the book WITH the Sommerswerd, as you can lose it in the end in order to get the easier fight.

The starting conditions are:

start with:
- a Sword, or the Sommerswerd
- one potion of Laumspur
- a Shield
- 4 meals
max endurance: 20
combat skill: 10
all disciplines, except the listed discipline (weapon specialization is Sword)

Missing disc #states	SS	SH	+4	BA	EX	Win rate	Imprisoned	Offer Oede	Limbdeath	Prism	Sash	c27 +2HP	Dhorgaan	Keep SS
SixthSense 67.68M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Camouflage 102.70M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Hunting 92.70M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Tracking 89.09M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
SixthSense 67.68M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Camouflage 102.70M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Hunting 92.70M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
Tracking 89.09M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	88.521%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	28.837%
SixthSense 67.68M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	85.712%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	26.625%
Camouflage 102.71M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	85.712%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	26.625%
Hunting 92.72M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	85.712%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	26.625%
Tracking 89.09M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	85.712%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	26.625%
SixthSense 67.68M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	85.491%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	26.625%
Camouflage 102.71M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	85.491%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	26.625%
Hunting 92.72M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	85.491%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	26.625%
Tracking 89.09M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	85.491%	-	62.837%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.837%	26.625%
SixthSense 66.26M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	84.788%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
SixthSense 69.91M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	84.788%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
Camouflage 100.36M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	84.788%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
Hunting 90.36M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	84.788%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
Tracking 87.68M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	84.788%	-	62.997%	100.000%	0.010%	-	-	89.996%	-
SixthSense 66.26M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	84.695%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.898%	-
Camouflage 100.36M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	84.695%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.898%	-
Hunting 90.36M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	84.695%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.898%	-
Tracking 87.68M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	84.695%	-	62.928%	100.000%	0.010%	-	-	89.898%	-
MindShield 83.71M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	83.852%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	-	90.000%	-
MindShield 83.71M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	83.851%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	-	90.000%	-
SixthSense 59.63M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	83.033%	-	62.483%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	89.262%	-
Camouflage 91.00M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	83.033%	-	62.483%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	89.262%	-
Hunting 82.17M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	83.033%	-	62.483%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	89.262%	-
Tracking 78.37M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	83.026%	-	62.478%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	89.254%	-
SixthSense 59.63M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	81.893%	-	61.625%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	88.036%	-
Camouflage 91.00M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	81.893%	-	61.625%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	88.036%	-
Hunting 82.17M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	81.893%	-	61.625%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	88.036%	-
Tracking 78.37M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	81.878%	-	61.614%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	88.020%	-
SixthSense 66.26M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	80.237%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	22.538%
Camouflage 100.38M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	80.237%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	22.538%
Hunting 90.39M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	80.237%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	22.538%
Tracking 87.69M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	80.237%	-	62.928%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.928%	22.538%
SixthSense 61.47M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Camouflage 88.54M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Hunting 83.50M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Tracking 81.62M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
SixthSense 61.47M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Camouflage 88.54M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Hunting 83.50M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
Tracking 81.62M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	78.989%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	22.612%
MindShield 74.30M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	78.636%	-	56.213%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.304%	-
SixthSense 66.26M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	78.505%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	22.538%
Camouflage 100.38M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	78.505%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	22.538%
Hunting 90.39M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	78.505%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	22.538%
Tracking 87.69M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	78.505%	-	61.569%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	61.569%	22.538%
MindShield 83.71M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	74.784%	-	63.000%	100.000%	100.000%	-	-	90.000%	-
SixthSense 54.24M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	74.701%	-	56.213%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.304%	-
Camouflage 78.29M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	74.701%	-	56.213%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.304%	-
Hunting 73.85M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	74.701%	-	56.213%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.304%	-
Tracking 71.88M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	74.663%	-	56.184%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.263%	-
MindShield 83.71M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	74.592%	-	62.837%	100.000%	100.000%	-	-	89.768%	-
MindShield 82.30M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	73.663%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
MindShield 82.30M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	73.582%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.898%	-
SixthSense 58.36M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	73.578%	-	60.259%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	86.084%	-
Camouflage 88.79M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	73.578%	-	60.259%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	86.084%	-
Hunting 79.97M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	73.578%	-	60.259%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	86.084%	-
Tracking 77.11M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	73.571%	-	60.253%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	86.076%	-
MindOverMatter 68.83M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	73.068%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	27.949%
MindOverMatter 68.83M states	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	73.068%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	27.949%
MindShield 74.30M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	72.840%	-	61.625%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	88.036%	-
SixthSense 58.36M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	71.062%	-	58.198%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	83.140%	-
Camouflage 88.79M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	71.062%	-	58.198%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	83.140%	-
Hunting 79.97M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	71.062%	-	58.198%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	83.140%	-
Tracking 77.11M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	71.038%	-	58.179%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	83.113%	-
MindOverMatter 68.83M states	yes	no	yes	yes	yes	70.820%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	25.779%
MindOverMatter 59.31M states	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	70.710%	20.000%	57.747%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	82.496%	-
MindOverMatter 68.83M states	yes	no	yes	yes	no	70.644%	20.000%	54.350%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.098%	25.777%
SixthSense 60.76M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	70.307%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.997%	18.654%
Camouflage 87.37M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	70.307%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.997%	18.654%
Hunting 82.33M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	70.307%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.997%	18.654%
Tracking 80.92M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	70.307%	-	62.997%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.997%	18.654%
SixthSense 60.76M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	70.230%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	18.654%
Camouflage 87.37M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	70.230%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	18.654%
Hunting 82.33M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	70.230%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	18.654%
Tracking 80.92M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	70.230%	-	62.928%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.928%	18.654%
MindOverMatter 67.41M states	yes	yes	yes	no	yes	70.082%	20.000%	54.478%	80.000%	100.000%	-	-	77.825%	-
MindOverMatter 67.41M states	yes	yes	yes	no	no	70.007%	20.000%	54.423%	80.000%	100.000%	-	-	77.747%	-
MindOverMatter 59.31M states	no	yes	yes	yes	no	69.799%	20.000%	57.062%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	81.518%	-
MindShield 68.11M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	66.443%	-	56.213%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	80.304%	-
MindOverMatter 67.41M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	66.441%	20.000%	54.422%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.171%	21.775%
MindOverMatter 62.49M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	65.442%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	21.834%
MindOverMatter 62.49M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	65.442%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	21.834%
MindShield 73.04M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	65.433%	-	49.615%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.879%	-
MindOverMatter 67.41M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	65.055%	20.000%	53.335%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	55.083%	21.759%
MindOverMatter 53.88M states	no	yes	no	yes	yes	64.048%	20.000%	52.734%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	75.335%	-
MindShield 82.30M states	yes	no	yes	no	yes	63.286%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	89.897%	-
MindOverMatter 58.03M states	no	yes	yes	no	yes	63.139%	20.000%	55.963%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	79.947%	-
MindShield 82.30M states	yes	no	yes	no	no	61.920%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	87.956%	-
MindShield 76.75M states	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	61.290%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	-	90.000%	-
MindShield 76.75M states	yes	yes	no	yes	no	61.289%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	-	90.000%	-
MindOverMatter 58.03M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	61.120%	20.000%	54.310%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	77.585%	-
SixthSense 59.62M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	60.623%	-	59.090%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	84.414%	-
Hunting 82.16M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	60.623%	-	59.090%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	84.414%	-
Camouflage 90.98M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	60.607%	-	59.074%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	84.391%	-
SixthSense 53.61M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	60.582%	-	49.615%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.879%	-
Camouflage 77.19M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	60.582%	-	49.615%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.879%	-
Hunting 72.75M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	60.582%	-	49.615%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.879%	-
Tracking 78.36M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	60.575%	-	59.043%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	84.347%	-
Tracking 71.25M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	60.527%	-	49.571%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.815%	-
MindOverMatter 61.78M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	58.497%	20.000%	54.478%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.226%	17.936%
MindOverMatter 61.78M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	58.435%	20.000%	54.423%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.171%	17.936%
SixthSense 54.24M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	57.931%	-	43.594%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	62.277%	-
Camouflage 78.29M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	57.931%	-	43.594%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	62.277%	-
Hunting 73.85M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	57.931%	-	43.594%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	62.277%	-
Tracking 71.88M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	57.878%	-	43.554%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	62.220%	-
SixthSense 61.46M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	57.481%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	18.364%
Camouflage 88.54M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	57.481%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	18.364%
Hunting 83.50M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	57.481%	-	63.000%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	63.000%	18.364%
Tracking 81.62M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	57.481%	-	63.000%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	63.000%	18.364%
SixthSense 61.46M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	57.333%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	18.364%
Camouflage 88.54M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	57.333%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	18.364%
Hunting 83.50M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	57.333%	-	62.837%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.837%	18.364%
Tracking 81.62M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	57.333%	-	62.837%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.837%	18.364%
MindShield 74.29M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	56.336%	-	41.541%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.345%	-
MindShield 73.04M states	no	yes	yes	no	no	55.686%	-	58.198%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	83.140%	-
SixthSense 59.62M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	55.187%	-	53.791%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	76.844%	-
Hunting 82.16M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	55.187%	-	53.791%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	76.844%	-
Camouflage 90.98M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	55.139%	-	53.744%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	76.778%	-
Tracking 78.36M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	55.068%	-	53.675%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	76.679%	-
MindOverMatter 59.30M states	no	no	yes	yes	yes	52.748%	20.000%	55.000%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	78.572%	-
MindOverMatter 53.24M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	52.724%	20.000%	47.433%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	67.762%	-
MindShield 68.11M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	51.527%	-	43.594%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	62.277%	-
MindOverMatter 53.88M states	no	yes	no	yes	no	50.631%	20.000%	42.638%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	60.911%	-
MindShield 76.04M states	yes	yes	no	no	yes	48.627%	-	62.997%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.996%	-
MindShield 76.04M states	yes	yes	no	no	no	48.573%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	-	89.898%	-
MindOverMatter 59.30M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	48.354%	20.000%	50.717%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	72.453%	-
MindOverMatter 62.49M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	48.236%	20.000%	54.480%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.228%	17.507%
MindOverMatter 62.49M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	48.117%	20.000%	54.350%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.098%	17.505%
MindShield 67.47M states	no	yes	no	no	yes	47.473%	-	49.615%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	70.879%	-
SixthSense 58.36M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	43.776%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Camouflage 88.78M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	43.776%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Hunting 79.96M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	43.776%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Tracking 77.11M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	43.521%	-	31.786%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.409%	-
SixthSense 53.61M states	no	yes	no	no	no	43.472%	-	35.603%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	50.861%	-
Camouflage 77.19M states	no	yes	no	no	no	43.472%	-	35.603%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	50.861%	-
Hunting 72.75M states	no	yes	no	no	no	43.472%	-	35.603%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	50.861%	-
Tracking 71.25M states	no	yes	no	no	no	43.417%	-	35.558%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	50.797%	-
SixthSense 54.23M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	42.704%	-	41.624%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.462%	-
Hunting 73.83M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	42.704%	-	41.624%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.462%	-
Camouflage 78.28M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	42.619%	-	41.541%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.345%	-
Tracking 71.87M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	42.551%	-	41.475%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.249%	-
MindShield 73.03M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	39.210%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
MindOverMatter 53.24M states	no	yes	no	no	no	39.038%	20.000%	36.225%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	51.750%	-
MindOverMatter 58.03M states	no	no	yes	no	yes	39.001%	20.000%	33.117%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	47.310%	-
SixthSense 60.76M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	38.862%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	14.679%
Camouflage 87.38M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	38.862%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	14.679%
Hunting 82.35M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	38.862%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	62.928%	14.679%
Tracking 80.92M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	38.862%	-	62.928%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	62.928%	14.679%
MindOverMatter 53.87M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	38.324%	20.000%	40.941%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	58.488%	-
MindShield 74.29M states	no	no	yes	yes	no	38.150%	-	53.744%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	76.778%	-
SixthSense 60.76M states	yes	no	no	no	no	38.023%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	14.679%
Camouflage 87.38M states	yes	no	no	no	no	38.023%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	14.679%
Hunting 82.35M states	yes	no	no	no	no	38.023%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	61.569%	14.679%
Tracking 80.92M states	yes	no	no	no	no	38.023%	-	61.569%	100.000%	0.010%	-	100.000%	61.569%	14.679%
SixthSense 58.36M states	no	no	yes	no	no	35.059%	-	44.598%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	63.711%	-
Camouflage 88.78M states	no	no	yes	no	no	35.059%	-	44.598%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	63.711%	-
Hunting 79.96M states	no	no	yes	no	no	35.059%	-	44.598%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	63.711%	-
Tracking 77.11M states	no	no	yes	no	no	34.921%	-	44.423%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	63.462%	-
MindShield 67.47M states	no	yes	no	no	no	34.066%	-	35.603%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	50.861%	-
MindShield 76.74M states	yes	no	no	yes	yes	33.578%	-	63.000%	100.000%	100.000%	-	-	90.000%	-
MindShield 76.74M states	yes	no	no	yes	no	33.491%	-	62.837%	100.000%	100.000%	-	-	89.768%	-
MindOverMatter 61.78M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	33.341%	20.000%	54.422%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	56.171%	13.688%
MindOverMatter 61.78M states	yes	no	no	no	no	32.669%	20.000%	53.335%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	55.083%	13.667%
MindOverMatter 58.03M states	no	no	yes	no	no	32.136%	20.000%	43.194%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	61.705%	-
MindShield 68.10M states	no	no	no	yes	yes	29.488%	-	41.541%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	59.345%	-
SixthSense 54.23M states	no	no	no	yes	no	25.662%	-	25.013%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	35.733%	-
Hunting 73.83M states	no	no	no	yes	no	25.662%	-	25.013%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	35.733%	-
Camouflage 78.28M states	no	no	no	yes	no	25.562%	-	24.916%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	35.594%	-
Tracking 71.87M states	no	no	no	yes	no	25.525%	-	24.880%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	35.542%	-
SixthSense 53.60M states	no	no	no	no	yes	25.133%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Camouflage 77.18M states	no	no	no	no	yes	25.133%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Hunting 72.73M states	no	no	no	no	yes	25.133%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
Tracking 71.25M states	no	no	no	no	yes	24.987%	-	31.786%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.409%	-
MindOverMatter 53.87M states	no	no	no	yes	no	24.690%	20.000%	27.651%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	39.502%	-
MindOverMatter 53.23M states	no	no	no	no	yes	24.215%	20.000%	33.117%	80.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	47.310%	-
Hunting 72.73M states	no	no	no	no	no	22.146%	100.000%	40.136%	-	-	-	-	57.337%	-
Tracking 71.25M states	no	no	no	no	no	22.146%	100.000%	40.136%	-	0.898%	-	-	57.337%	-
SixthSense 53.60M states	no	no	no	no	no	22.121%	100.000%	40.091%	-	-	-	-	57.273%	-
MindShield 73.03M states	no	no	yes	no	no	21.552%	-	44.598%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	63.711%	-
MindOverMatter 53.23M states	no	no	no	no	no	21.408%	100.000%	38.799%	-	100.000%	-	-	55.427%	-
MindShield 68.10M states	no	no	no	yes	no	17.686%	-	24.916%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	35.594%	-
MindShield 76.04M states	yes	no	no	no	yes	17.326%	-	62.928%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	89.897%	-
Camouflage 77.18M states	no	no	no	no	no	16.958%	100.000%	32.183%	-	11.415%	-	-	45.976%	-
MindShield 76.04M states	yes	no	no	no	no	16.952%	-	61.569%	100.000%	-	-	100.000%	87.956%	-
MindShield 67.47M states	no	no	no	no	yes	15.451%	-	31.972%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	45.674%	-
MindShield 67.47M states	no	no	no	no	no	7.693%	-	15.919%	100.000%	100.000%	-	100.000%	22.741%	-

Concluding remarks

If you have to choose between the Silver Helm or the Sommerswerd, it is better to have the Helm. The reason is that in the end, you can avoid the harder fight more easily, and still get a good magic weapon, that gives a +5 bonus. With the Helm, it is equivalent to what the Sommerswerd provides (+8).

Edit 2022/03/01: depending on the situation, the Sommerswerd is actually stronger, as it let you choose an easier fight. The potent strength potion can be used for several fights, depending on the configuration. Please look at the specific solution visualisation for details!

Also, with that new code, purchases are actually properly tracked, so you can see that it is sometimes optimal to purchase the +2HP Potion at chapter 154.

In terms of technical progress, the code has been optimized a bit, and the route extractor rewritten in Rust. I might be able to convert the whole solver to Rust to increase solving speed, who knows?

The resulting data is quite large, as it weights about 60GB in compressed form. This makes the creation of an online solution explorer quite difficult too. It might be possible to write a compressed solution by creating decision rules instead of storing all the states, but that is for another time :)

Hbtvl

Edit

Mega solution!

Concluding remarks